Why A Landslide Trump Loss Still Means He Wins 40% Of The Vote (Or More)

If Donald Trump suffers a landslide loss to Joe Biden in 2020, it is highly likely he would nonetheless receive at least 40% of the vote.

The perception that a widespread rejection of Trump would mean support substantially lower than that is a myth.

Modern landslides in America show that presidential candidates who get destroyed electorally still enjoy relatively widespread popular support.

In 1984, Ronald Reagan won a lopsided 525 electoral votes. Reagan won every state except Washington, D.C. and Minnesota. And yet, his opponent Walter Mondale received 40.6% of the vote.

The 1964 election is often cited as a pivotal electoral moment in American history, but while Lyndon Johnson absolutely destroyed Barry Goldwater 486-52 in the electoral college, Goldwater received 38.5% of the vote.

And despite Trump’s sustained unpopularity and his standing behind Joe Biden in the polls, he is likely to put on a much stronger performance than Goldwater and Mondale.

Even if you go back to the completely lopsided election of 1936, where Franklin Roosevelt beat Alf Landon 523-8 in the electoral college and cruised to an easy reelection during the Great Depression, Landon still managed to pull in 36.5%.

Recent elections also point toward something resembling a 40% “floor” for the loser.

Mitt Romney got 47.2% in 2012. John McCain got 45.7% in 2008. In 2004, John Kerry received 48.3% of the votes in his loss to George W. Bush.

A landslide can happen. But a realistic look at history shows that even in utterly decisive contests, losers have the backing of millions of Americans.

If you liked this post, please consider subscribing to my Patreon to fund more posts like it. Join today, save the world!

%d bloggers like this: