Hillary Clinton Will Beat Donald Trump, Explained

Hillary Clinton is going to beat Donald Trump in the November 2016 United States general election and it is unlikely to be close.

Secretary Clinton is not a naturally gifted campaigner like President Obama or President Bill Clinton, but she will nonetheless defeat Donald Trump.

It’s okay to say this. It does not discourage people from voting in the fall to say this. It is not a problem for liberals to believe this, and frankly it shows confidence and strength in the ideals of the progressive movement and within the Democratic Party to believe and understand this.

Pundits and columnists and otherwise knowledgeable people who say otherwise are either being silly, fooling themselves, or lying to you.

I’m not the best prognosticator in the world but my guess is that Clinton will defeat Trump by about 7% in the head to head election and end up with an electoral college victory along the lines of 332-206, playing out like this:

clinton-trump-evmap

(I think Clinton also has a better-than-usual shot at winning in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia but I’m always kind of conservative with these)

I believe Clinton will defeat Trump for several reasons:

  • She is the better candidate
  • Trump is a joke and obviously unqualified for even the GOP nomination, let alone the presidency
  • Clinton will have a unified party supporting her including the sitting president, and a former president, popular senators, governors, and members of Congress
  • Clinton will also have millions of dollars in outside spending that will not hold back on attacking Trump as Republicans did in their primary
  • Trump’s campaign is very incompetent, and this incompetence was only obscured by the incompetence of his Republican rivals. Romney was more competent and he lost. Clinton is often overprepared, if anything, and despite the Democratic Party often failing at the basics, I don’t see them screwing this one up enough for Trump to win
  • While #NeverTrump is mostly noise, there will be a small but statistically significant amount of Republicans who will not vote for Trump, vote third party, and even vote for Clinton
  • Minority and female voters will turn out both in support of Clinton and in opposition to the hate that Trump represents
  • America is not a racist country: it has come a long way, and is not going backwards
  • Donald Trump is a fascist, America opposes fascism

I feel strange writing something like this because the obviousness of Trump losing seems clear-cut to me, but I’ve seen liberals losing their minds over the possibility of him winning. While nothing is 100%, the likelihood of aliens landing on the White House lawn and defecating on the rose garden is more likely than Donald Trump being elected the 45th President of the United States.

If you’re going into war – and this is war – you need to be confident, not constantly racked with doubt and fear. When it comes to presidential elections, the Democratic Party is currently Michael Jordan at the height of the three-peat. They’ve won a plurality of the vote in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections and a majority of the votes in the last two. And the winner of those two races isn’t just going to sit by and allow Donald Trump of all people to erase his legacy, nor are the vast majority of the voters who put Obama in power in the first place.

Donald Trump will lose. Hillary Clinton will win. She will be President.

(And if we are consumed by hell-fire and brimstone and Trump wins, the least of my problems will be being very wrong on the Internet.)

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Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Clinton T-Shirts
Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Clinton T-Shirts


  • Kenneth Fair

    The real issue, and the real reason to run up the score, is to put as much of Congress in Democratic hands as possible.

  • Snertly

    Nothing undermines the odds of a Democratic victory like the assumption that a Democratic victory is inevitable.

    PS – #SandersWarren2016

  • People have spent the last year underestimating Donald Trump, so you’re not the first. But if he’s to be defeated, Hillary won’t be the one. the whole primary season narrative has been the electorate rejecting the two parties and especially rejecting the people in power. Hillary is the establishment candidate. She’s openly bragging about continuing Obama’s legacy. There’s a dirty secret out here that Dems have spent most of eight years defending Obama from frivolous assaults, but they’ve never come to grips with how much of his policy has been disastrous. All of the recovery since 2008 has gone to the 1% on Obama’s watch. On Obama’s watch, we managed to make parts of our healthcare system WORSE–my company supplied benefits now come with big deductibles, and my insurer challenges EVERY BILL. And people still go bankrupt due to medical expenses, even though most of the bankrupt have health insurance. People who think Hillary’s victory is a done deal are not paying attention.

  • CherokeeNative

    Brooklyn is being Debbie Downer. First, President Obama will go down in history one of the most successful Presidents in modern times. Americans are not going to let Republicans take us backward by destroying what is his legacy. Second, American voters will not elect a fascist backed by white supremacy. Trump is wholly unqualified and unfit to be President. He is mentally disturbed as pointed out by numerous pyschiatrists who have declared him to be a danger to our Country and the World. Speaker Ryan and Senator McConnell are willing to sacrifice their Republican principles for electoral victory by putting a mentally disturbed man in control of our nukes. They will be sorry when they see their careers ruined by Trump’s loss. Most Americans will put aside party politics in favor of their Country and vote Hillary. They recognize that she is the only candidate qualified and fit to lead our already great Nation. November 8th is right around the corner and Hillary will be our 45th POTUS.