Hillary Clinton is going to beat Donald Trump in the November 2016 United States general election and it is unlikely to be close.
Secretary Clinton is not a naturally gifted campaigner like President Obama or President Bill Clinton, but she will nonetheless defeat Donald Trump.
It’s okay to say this. It does not discourage people from voting in the fall to say this. It is not a problem for liberals to believe this, and frankly it shows confidence and strength in the ideals of the progressive movement and within the Democratic Party to believe and understand this.
Pundits and columnists and otherwise knowledgeable people who say otherwise are either being silly, fooling themselves, or lying to you.
I’m not the best prognosticator in the world but my guess is that Clinton will defeat Trump by about 7% in the head to head election and end up with an electoral college victory along the lines of 332-206, playing out like this:
(I think Clinton also has a better-than-usual shot at winning in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia but I’m always kind of conservative with these)
I believe Clinton will defeat Trump for several reasons:
- She is the better candidate
- Trump is a joke and obviously unqualified for even the GOP nomination, let alone the presidency
- Clinton will have a unified party supporting her including the sitting president, and a former president, popular senators, governors, and members of Congress
- Clinton will also have millions of dollars in outside spending that will not hold back on attacking Trump as Republicans did in their primary
- Trump’s campaign is very incompetent, and this incompetence was only obscured by the incompetence of his Republican rivals. Romney was more competent and he lost. Clinton is often overprepared, if anything, and despite the Democratic Party often failing at the basics, I don’t see them screwing this one up enough for Trump to win
- While #NeverTrump is mostly noise, there will be a small but statistically significant amount of Republicans who will not vote for Trump, vote third party, and even vote for Clinton
- Minority and female voters will turn out both in support of Clinton and in opposition to the hate that Trump represents
- America is not a racist country: it has come a long way, and is not going backwards
- Donald Trump is a fascist, America opposes fascism
I feel strange writing something like this because the obviousness of Trump losing seems clear-cut to me, but I’ve seen liberals losing their minds over the possibility of him winning. While nothing is 100%, the likelihood of aliens landing on the White House lawn and defecating on the rose garden is more likely than Donald Trump being elected the 45th President of the United States.
If you’re going into war – and this is war – you need to be confident, not constantly racked with doubt and fear. When it comes to presidential elections, the Democratic Party is currently Michael Jordan at the height of the three-peat. They’ve won a plurality of the vote in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections and a majority of the votes in the last two. And the winner of those two races isn’t just going to sit by and allow Donald Trump of all people to erase his legacy, nor are the vast majority of the voters who put Obama in power in the first place.
Donald Trump will lose. Hillary Clinton will win. She will be President.
(And if we are consumed by hell-fire and brimstone and Trump wins, the least of my problems will be being very wrong on the Internet.)