A Few Predictions For The Lockbox

This seems like as good a day as any to put this out there.

Here are some of my 2012 election predictions:

1. President Obama will not face any serious primary challenge and will easily be re-nominated
2. The Obama campaign will reach or be very close to the $1 billion mark for fundraising
3. Mitt Romney will not be the Republican nominee (I thought Pawlenty could squeeze in but his campaign is poorly run. I actually see a path to the nomination for Bachmann — please, please, please — and they may be seduced by Rick Perry or some other fool who checks the right boxes)
4. Democrats will retain the Senate (this is my least certain prediction) and eat into the GOP’s House majority
5. President Obama will be re-elected. His margin of victory will be smaller than 2008 (unless the nominee is Palin or Bachmann). Swing states he will keep: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

As usual, these predictions are worth what you paid for them (nothing) and are probably all wrong.